During uncertain times, confidence matters

Periods of uncertainty can feel unsettling. News headlines move quickly, markets react sharply, and it’s natural to feel concerned about what it all means for your super balance or retirement income.

While uncertainty is part of investing, there are a few things you can rely on: the lessons of history, the way we actively manage your super, and the importance of staying focused on the long term.

Right now, markets are responding to two very different forces at once.

What’s happening in markets

Over the past few weeks, markets are facing two very different shocks at the same time.

1. Geopolitical: rising tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have reminded investors that global events can still have a very real impact on markets. Oil prices moved sharply higher as investors worried about possible disruption to one of the world’s most important energy routes. Because so much of the world’s oil moves through that area, even a partial disruption can quickly flow through to higher energy prices, higher inflation and more market volatility.

2. Technological: at the same time, rapid advances in AI are reshaping industries. Recent announcements from companies like Anthropic triggered a sell-off in parts of the software sector, as investors reassess which business models will benefit and which may be disrupted.

Confidence in history

While today’s environment may feel unique, uncertainty itself is not new.

History shows us that markets regularly experience periods of disruption, whether driven by geopolitical conflict, technological change, financial crises or global health events. In the moment, these periods can feel prolonged and unpredictable. But over time, economies adjust, businesses adapt, and markets recover. The graph shows the long-term growth of the US stock market, where an initial $1 investment rises substantially over more than a century despite repeated economic crises.

It highlights that although major disruptions cause sharp short-term declines, the market has consistently recovered and continued an overall upward trend. Short-term shocks cause setbacks, but the overall trend consistently recovers and continues upward over time.

Why history matters

Importantly, markets have not just recovered, they have gone on to reach new highs.

That doesn’t mean the path is smooth. There will always be periods of volatility and uneven returns. But long-term investing is built on the principle that staying invested through uncertainty allows members to benefit from that recovery and growth over time.

This is why confidence matters. Not blind optimism, but informed confidence, grounded in history, discipline and a long-term approach.

Confidence in how we manage your super

At NGS Super, we understand that behind every investment decision are our members’ savings and future plans. That responsibility shapes how we think, how we invest, and how we act.

At NGS, we do not see geopolitics as something happening far away that can simply be ignored. We build it into the way we think about the portfolio. That means we look carefully at where the pressure points are in the world, how they could affect inflation and growth, and how we can position the portfolio to be more resilient.

In other words, we actively consider them as part of portfolio construction. By doing that, we aim to avoid the hot spots and build a portfolio that is better able to handle uncertainty.

That approach has helped in the current environment. Before the recent escalation in Iran, our tactical asset allocation program had already taken large positions in oil, and that has benefited from the rise in oil prices.

Staying focused long term

More broadly, our portfolio has meaningful exposure to real assets, including infrastructure and property, mainly in Australia and the United States. These assets have been more resilient during recent share market weakness and can provide some protection in periods of higher inflation, as income can adjust over time.

Our approach is also underpinned by diversification. The portfolio is not reliant on a single source of return, it is spread across asset classes that can respond differently to changing conditions. We also retain the flexibility to adjust positions when we believe markets are mispricing risk.

Importance of staying the course

When markets become volatile, it’s natural to want to act, often by moving to safer options like cash. But reacting to short-term market movements can do more harm than good.

Selling after markets fall can lock in losses, and it often means missing the recovery when markets rebound, which can happen quickly and without warning. Some of the strongest market gains have occurred shortly after periods of decline.

For most members, the more effective approach is to stay focused on long-term goals and remain invested.

Talk to an NGS Super Specialist

That said, it’s important that your investment mix still reflects your personal circumstances, goals and time horizon. If you haven’t reviewed your options in a while, now could be a good time.

A conversation with an NGS Super Specialist can help you understand your options and feel more confident about your plan, especially during uncertain times.